[Email Reply]

Bill's Blow, Stock Blowoffs, and Millennial Madness

by J. Orlin Grabbe

A newsman in Arkansas sends the following information. I don't know if it is true or not. But I find it plausible given that both White House and military medical sources have confirmed Bill Clinton's use of "five plus" lines of cocaine a day (see "Bill Clinton's Cocaine Habit").

Oddly, we usually hear about Bill when he sneaks back to Arkansas (and yes, he does pop back here with absolutely no public furor). One of his dearest buddies (spelled "fellow cocaine-ista") is a Fayetteville lawyer, Woody Basset. Woody is the brother of Beverly Basset Shaffer (wife of Archie "Don Tyson's" Shaffer) and those folks have spent a lot of time with Starr. Anyway, Bill has been known to sneak home on occasion, not in Air Force One, but, in a Tyson corporate jet (the Hawker). Rumor is he's getting really paranoid about where he gets his blow from . . . kinda hard to find a "taste tester" I guess. Last time he snuck back here - about two months or so as I recall - they actually had so much security at Drake Field (Fayetteville) that they were obvious. Bill and the boys meet at the Clarion Inn (formerly called the Park Inn) in Fayetteville. One of our sources swears he'll be here just after the convention for an evening of fun and frolic. It'll be interesting to see how much muscle he brings with him.

* * *

A former Democratic fund-raiser writes: "Here is a statement that I e-mailed and faxed to many of my friends and family last night [9/15/96]. What's the saying, Buy Rosh Hashana and sell Yom Kippur? I sure hope that Wheeler is wrong in this month's SI [Strategic Investment] and that Starr will indict so we don't have to depend on Dan Burton!" The letter follows:

This is a follow-up to the update sent out yesterday. The reason is to remind you FOR THE VERY LAST TIME to protect your positions. As I read the tea leaves, the odds are very strong that the end of the bull market will complete itself this week (for the Dow and the S&P - it has already begun in all of the other averages, including bonds).

At the earliest, my indicators show this top completed last Friday. The latest possible date will be September 27th.

Please note that the following projected highs are intraday calculations, they don't need to be closing prices. Note that they increase 11 points/day as they track the 21-day 3.5% exponential target which has ended EVERY bull market since the 1920's.

September 16th: 5909
September 17th: 5920
September 18th: 5921
September 19th: 5932
September 20th: 5943
September 23rd: 5954
September 24th: 5965
September 25th: 5976
September 26th: 5987
September 27th: 5998

My TIMING indicators show a high probability for the top to be in place between the 16th and the 18th. As of tonight, the 17th is looking like the most likely date, however, as this top is of such historic importance, don't be surprised by a few days extension.

The MOST LIKELY scenario is a little more up intraday tomorrow, followed by a strong sell-off on Mon and/or Tuesday, followed by a final thrust up Wed. or Thursday. However, a final thrust up IS NOT REQUIRED here, it will however complete one final sub minuet wave five AND nicely match my timing counts - for a PERFECT ending.

The sell-off AFTER the final thrust up should be severe. I doubt any rally tomorrow of more than 30 points can be sustained, before a reversal. Whatever remaining defensive moves you need to make, DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER.

* * *

I quoted Carl Jung on symbols of transformation, not on millennialism. However, for those interested in the latter, here are some recommendations. The classic study on apocalyptic religions is When Prophecy Fails, by Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. The book examines what happens to religious groups when their predictions or prophecies turn out to be wrong. Under certain conditions, instead of losing faith in their previous beliefs, members become more eager than ever to preach and proselytize: if you can convert others to your way of thinking, it proves that your basic world view must have been correct, even if events didn't turn out quite the way you expected. The bulk of the book is an in-depth study of a UFO group.

Like Moses and Joseph Smith, a Mrs. Marion Keech had received messages from extra-terrestrial sources. She had studied Dianetics and Scientology and had been "cleared" by an auditor and friend. Later in the early 1950's she began to receive messages from her "father" and "Higher Forces" via automatic writing. She began to associate the messages with the "flying saucers" which were much in the news. The flying saucers turned out to be manned by "Guardians" who told her the destruction of the area by flood was imminent. When the prediction was publicized, one of the sociologists joined the group for covert first-hand observation. Having joined, he could hardly remain a neutral observer, especially when Mrs. Keech asked him to officiate at one of the meetings.

Norman Cohn's The Pursuit of the Millennium gives an account of a 16th century Jewish messianic movement. It also contains an interesting history of The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion, the classic work on the "International Jewish Banking Conspiracy", fabricated in 1903 by the Czarist secret police from a French satire, Dialogue aux Enfers entre Machiavel et Montesquieu, by Maurice Joly.

One Christian group, the Jehovah's Witnesses, have set various dates for the return of Jesus, then subsequently reinterpreted each date when the Messiah failed to appear ("Prophetic Failure and Chiliastic Identity: the Case of the Jehovah's Witnesses," American Journal of Sociology, 1970--I don't have the exact date). The journal article covers the history of these failures in detail, and also notes the principal device the group uses to confirm its image of the future:

The most frequently used device has been the selective interpretation of emerging historical events as confirming signs of the approaching end . . . . The group's negative and pessimistic world view sensitized it to perceive virtually every major and minor social disturbance and natural catastrophe as an indicator of the impending collapse of the earthly system. The varied forms of unrest, generated in a society undergoing rapid industrialization, urbanization, secularization, and other changes, were exploited to affirm the hopeless bankruptcy of the prevailing social system and its disastrous downward spiral. The expressions of vexation, alarm, and impending doom voiced by various outside commentators on the passing scene were similarly drawn upon as outside evidence. A related device has been the effort to interpret the experiences and achievements of the movement itself as confirming signs of the approaching climax and as validation of the sect's conception of itself as an agency of prophetic fulfillment . . .

However, as the financial disclaimer goes, "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance."

* * *

A tourist in Prague worked his way across the Charles IV bridge and up the hillside in the direction of St. Vitus Cathedral. Suddenly he heard a cry, looked up, and saw a man fling himself from a tall building. The man hit the sidewalk a few feet away, took a small bounce, then lay sprawled and motionless. The tourist didn't know what to do, so hurried on down the street.

A few minutes later, police arrived and arrested the tourist. Why?

It turns out that in Prague it is illegal to pass a bouncing Czech.

September 16, 1996
Web Page: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/